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Nostra Thomas Speaks!

10/26/03
by John C. Thomas
On an otherwise ordinary Sunday afternoon in late fall, menacing clouds gathered over the Gentile Center on the campus of Loyola University Chicago. Bone-jarring thunder rolled louder than a hundred El trains, and spears of lightning impaled the ominous miasma. As the timid mortals scattered, the coal colored overcast split open wide to reveal the stern but beneficent countenance of Nostra Thomas--- The Seer of Sheridan, The Wizard of Winthrop, The Mystic of Mertz.

"Do not fear me, suffering Loyola fans," he said in a kindly, sympathetic baritone. "I come to you today to reveal the future for the Loyola men's basketball team in 2003-2004… you poor saps."

With that, Nostra Thomas pulled out some crumpled notes and his tiny black frame reading glasses. He slid the spectacles half way over his nose, cleared his throat, and spoke thusly:

The Ramblers, coming off a 15-16 season in which the team struggled with consistency and meeting rather high expectations, will have another season of struggles and unmet prospects. While there are some excellent players coming into the program, the loss of experience and consistent scoring foretell a difficult year for Rambler fans.

The most glaring loss will be the experience and leadership of David Bailey. The Ramblers' leading scorer for the past three years and the third highest scorer in school history was often criticized for being a ball hog. Yet sometimes forgotten in the scoring numbers was the fact that Bailey was also team leader for three years in assists and steals, also ranking third in school history in both categories. Moreover, Bailey often appeared to be the only Loyola player willing to take a shot when the clock was running down or the offense couldn't set up for a play.

Bailey's replacement will be sophomore Terrance Whiters, who spent much of last year being groomed to assume the team leadership. Whiters brings superior outside shooting and the potential to become the school's all-time steals leader. He's not nearly as flashy as Bailey, but he has similar quickness. And because he doesn't try to do too much, like Bailey often did, he may take care of the ball a little better. Unfortunately, Whiters also brings eligibility and attitude questions. Another cause for concern is Whiters' inability to produce assists-averaging only 1.7 apg in his first year, as opposed to Bailey's 2.6 in his first year. Even in the two games with Bailey on the bench due to injury, Whiters averaged 3.5 assists, compared to Bailey's season average of 5.3 apg.

Loyola also loses defensive mainstay Kevin Clancy to graduation. A starter in all but six of the 61 games since becoming eligible at Loyola, Clancy was adept at defensive pressure and a sure ballhandler. He'll be ably replaced by senior Louis Smith, who has blossomed into a brilliant defensive player with improving offensive ability. As a backup to Clancy, Smith seemed to find added confidence and a comfortable niche as a defensive specialist while averaging 4.0 ppg and 2.4 rpg in only 17 minutes per game. Louis was second on the team in blocks and steals per minutes played, and he has shown the ability to explode offensively in several games over the past two years.

Perhaps the most frustrating loss from last year's team was sometimes starter/sixth man Corey Minnifield. As a Proposition 48 player, Minnifield would have been eligible for another season if he had stayed on pace for graduation. Corey was ineligible for the first semester last year, but managed to average 10.1 ppg and 4.3 rpg starting 20 games and coming off the bench in the final 24 games of the year. Minnifield smacked down 21 blocks on the season, and scored a career-high 28 points in an out-of-this-world performance at Butler. Instead of being able to improve his credentials for a professional career in basketball with another season in college, Loyola will be forced to replace him with an inexperience freshman-- probably Blake Schilb.

Another significant loss is assistant coach Scott Spinelli, who accepted a similar position at Nebraska. Spinneli arrived at Loyola on the heels of a 7-21 season, after Loyola had extended its non-winning year streak to 14. In his two years at Loyola, the Ramblers had their first winning season since the Reagan administration, went a combined 32-29, accumulated a 3-2 conference tournament record, defeated a smug Butler squad two years in a row, and reached overtime in the conference tournament final. Coincidence? From everything I've seen and heard, it was not at all a coincidence. Spinneli was also the major force behind signing Paul McMillan, Terrance Whiters, and Majak Kou.

The Ramblers also lost the services of Vas Tsimpliaridis, Shohn Williams, and Joe Evert, three players that had few collegiate highlights-at least as far as basketball goes. Coming on board are five promising recruits, two of which have the ability to be major factors in the Horizon League.

Majak Kou, considered by some the best player out of Canada, will be a star in the Horizon League. The 6'5" guard/forward has the body of Louis Smith (minus 15 pounds) and devastating offensive ability from everywhere on the court. He can dunk like Justin Coons, shoot the three like Rashad Philips (at 6'5", much harder to block than Rashad), and block like Demetrius Williams. In the Canadian equivalent of the McDonalds All-American game, Kou scored 42 points. Figure on Kou starting more than 20 games this year, making the all-newcomer team, and averaging low to mid double digits in points. He is arguably Loyola's best freshman recruit since Alfredrick Hughes, and the closest to a "sure thing" recruit this league has seen since Xavier's Brian Grant. Really.

Blake Schilb is a strong and athletic 6'7" forward who was recruited by several big-name programs. His skills and body type remind me of Rylan Hainje. Originally from Rantoul, Ill., Schilb played last year at Brewster Prep in New Hampshire with fellow Rambler newcomer David Gale, a 6'0" point guard from California. Schilb is likely to fill Corey Minnifield's role, and Gale is similar to Jason Telford.

Whitney Young's Andre Knox is a solid 6'2" shooting guard that can also play the point. Considered the third best recruit on one of the state's best high school teams last year, Knox quietly put up excellent numbers-- particularly in field goal percentage (49%) and three-point shooting (44%).

Tyrelle Blair is a skinny 6'11" center out of Florida State University High School who will offer some height and blocking ability to the Ramblers off the bench. With some development in footwork, positioning, and in the weight room, he might be able to offer Loyola some quality minutes a la JaJa Richards.

The newcomers will join returning starters Paul McMillan and Demetrius Williams. McMillan, who led the Horizon League in rebounds by a wide margin in his first season at Loyola and averaged 14.6 ppg, was named to the Horizon League Preseason First Team. The 6'6" 240 power forward is likely to assume the team leadership in 2003-04, a role that the former assistant coach at Miami-Middleton sometimes seemed to try to wrest from David Bailey in the 2002-03 season. He should get more shots this year-but hopefully not from beyond 12 feet from the basket, a tendency that created a lot of problems for Loyola last year.

Fellow juco transfer Demetrius Williams was a late addition to the roster last year, and he was a pleasant surprise for Loyola fans-particularly when he held his temper and hustled back on defense. The lanky, long-armed 6'9" center finished his first year in the league second in blocks and third in rebounds while averaging 10.3 ppg. Many of his 29 steals came late in the year, when he learned how to grab the ball out of a lazy rebounder's arms without getting called for a foul. If Williams can learn to channel his temper into defensive hustle, he has the potential to improve even more than McMillan in his second and final season in the league.

Underlying the promise of expected improvements from McMillan, Williams, and Whiters is the issue of eligibilty. All three are rumored (by reliable sources) to be ineligible for the first two games of the season. If Williams and McMillan can't become eligible for the second semester, their college career is over. If Whiters can't become eligible for the second semester, he would be best off to transfer. If all three can't become eligible for the second semester, Larry Farmer should become ineligible.

With three of the Ramblers' primary players ineligible for the first two games, several bench players will get opportunities. Anthony and Antoine Smith are entering their junior years at Loyola having scored a combined 75 points to go with 82 rebounds in two seasons each. That's less than one point per game and less than one rebound per game per scholarship year. With McMillan and Williams out for the first two games of the season, the Smith twins will be Loyola's only two players over 6'4" with any collegiate experience whatsoever. I realize that the Smith twins haven't had a lot of opportunities, but they haven't performed particularly well in the few opportunities they've had. With Corey Minnifield and Joe Evert gone, and two major inside players ineligible for at least the first two games, the Smiths will have a golden opportunity this year to show some talent, or at least some progress.

The Rambler bench at the guard position is a lot more solid. Senior Jason Telford is one of the most solid, hardworking backup point guards in the league. He takes care of the ball like a biker guards his Harley. He won't even try to score any points unless he's left alone or has no other choice.

Junior guard DaJuan Gouard is also surehanded, but a little more athletic than Telford. He can score from a farther range than Telford, and is a little more apt to pull the trigger on jumpers. Gouard is not a natural point, and he can sometimes have his pocket picked. He is more comfortable at the shooting guard position, where he can use his athleticism and jump-shooting ability without being distracted by running plays.

The inexperience of this year's Ramblers will make the season an uphill struggle for Loyola fans. But part of the steep grade the Ramblers will be forced to climb this year is due to the coaching staff and athletic administration. For the second year in a row, Loyola will play only 11 games at home. In the five seasons in the Larry Farmer era, Loyola is 16-63 away from the Gentile Center, including a 25-game road losing streak stretching over parts of three seasons. Eleven of those 16 wins have come in the past two seasons; in the Larry Farmer era without assistant coach Scott Spinneli, the Ramblers are 5-38 away from the Joe.

Given the Horizon League's position in the college basketball pecking order, it's not surprising that Loyola should struggle to get a decent schedule with a respectable balance between quality opponents and home vs. road games. With home-and-home commitments, tournaments, and the occasional bad deal agreed to in order to fill out the schedule under duress, it's understandable to have one season every several years in which Loyola has only three home non-conference games. Two years in a row is a monumental, unqualified demonstration of incompetence, especially when the return games involve Belmont, UMKC, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and IPFW. In 2002-03, only 23% of Loyola's non-conference games were at home. The very next year, only 27% of non-conference games are at home. Then add the fact that Loyola plays at DePaul two years in a row while DePaul owes Loyola a return game from the 1990s, and now you've got borderline malfeasance.

So now, what does this mean for the 2003-04 Loyola men's basketball season? Here, game by game, are Nostra Thomas' predictions, along with a spreadsheet listing evaluative data for each contest.

Game 1: at DePaul L, 0-1
Game 2: at UMKC L, 0-2
Game 3: at Valpo L, 0-3
Game 4: Oral Roberts W, 1-3
Game 5: at Bradley L, 1-4
Game 6: Western Michigan W, 2-4
Game 7: Central Michigan W, 3-4
Game 8: vs. Birmingham Southern L, 3-5
Game 9: vs. St. Peter's W, 4-5
Game 10: Youngstown State W, 5-5, 1-0
Game 11: at Cleveland State W, 6-5, 2-0
Game 12: at UIC L, 6-6, 2-1
Game 13: UWM L, 6-7, 2-2
Game 14: at Butler L, 6-8, 2-3
Game 15: Wright State W, 7-8, 3-3
Game 16: at Providence L, 7-9, 3-3
Game 17: UWGB W, 8-9, 4-3
Game 18: UIC L, 8-10, 4-4
Game 19: at Youngstown State L, 8-11, 4-5
Game 20: Detroit W, 9-11, 5-5
Game 21 at Wright State L, 9-12, 5-6
Game 22: Butler L, 9-13, 5-7
Game 23: at UWM L, 9-14, 5-8
Game 24: at UWGB L, 9-15, 5-9
Game 25: at Detroit L, 9-16, 5-10
Game 26: at Bracket Buster L, 9-17, 5-10
Game 27: Cleveland State W, 10-17, 6-10

In this scenario, I believe that Loyola finishes 6th in the league, and plays 3rd place finisher Butler in the first round at Hinkle. Loyola loses, and finishes the season 10-18.

Five weeks after the end of the season, Loyola announces that they are not renewing the contract of Larry Farmer. Naturally, the decision and announcement are made too late to sign any of the better candidates, so Loyola has to settle for someone picked from a pool of candidates that have been passed over by schools with similar resources and more committed and competent leadership. What did you expect?

Nostra Thomas has spoken. Cue the thunder and lightning.