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Horizon League Tournament Preview
2/27/06
by Joe DlugoszIt’s that time of year again, when the Horizon League trots out some skewed image that looks like a retarded spider and calls it a bracket. Teams gather at several different locales and vie for the opportunity to play a well rested first place team on their home court for the right to take the NCAA bid away from the league champion. That’s right it’s bringing the championship home, or something like that.
And for the first time since the concept was launched it may not work out the way it was intended. The Horizon League has so much parity this season that it’s not inconceivable to see a team besides Butler or Milwaukee go to the NCAA tournament. The two hottest teams coming into the Horizon League Championship week are the reason that this format was adopted in the first place.
Loyola comes in sporting a three-game win streak, having gone 4-1 over their last five contests and the UIC Flames have won two-straight and three of their last five. Let us not forget fellow 8-8 ball club Detroit, the Titans have gone 4-1 over their last five and are coming off a great win over the Butler Bulldogs.
So get your computers ready, because without a central location there is no way to watch all the games. In fact, since most of us will probably be at a game there is no way to watch any of the other teams this Tuesday. So, get your cell phones ready for scoring updates and prepare yourself for the self-proclaimed Horizon League tournament.
The following guide to the tournament should help every fan make sense of the madness as it unfolds over the next seven days in no less than five different cities. Enjoy.
Butler Bulldogs
Last 5 Games:3-2
Strengths:The Bulldogs have the Horizon League player of the year in forward Brandon Polk. He is the Dogs only inside presence and even with teams knowing that he can’t be stopped. The Bulldogs also have the top defense in the league holding opponents to just over 60 points a game. The Dogs also hit better than 39% on threes and often will launch 25 or more three attempts per game. Butler doesn’t make many mistake either, turning the ball over just just 119 times on the season, they sport an amazing 5.31 turnover margin.
Weaknesses:The Bulldogs aren’t very deep or tall. The Bulldogs are the worst rebounding team in the league and get beat on the glass by almost nine rebounds a game. Butler’s rotation doesn’t get beyond seven deep. If the Dogs were to get into foul trouble or go into overtime it could spell trouble.
Big Joe’s Thoughts:The Bulldogs ended the season in the worst possible way. They had their destiny in their hands needing just a win against the Titans and then wound up losing in the last seconds despite a furious comeback. Not having the tournament at Hinkle after getting so close has to sting a bit. Also, relying on the three as much as Butler does could haunt them on a bad shooting night. That said, they’ve defied the odds all season long and have a most favorable draw.
Big Joe’s Odds:5-3
Cleveland State Vikings
Last 5 Games:2-3
Strengths:The Vikings are big and tough. CSU is the second best rebounding team in the conference and they led the league in steals. The Vikings also play tremendously better on the road where they posted a 4-4 mark in the league play.
Weaknesses:The Vikings can’t shoot. The Vikes are last in the league in field goal percentage, last in free-throw percentage and seventh in three-point percentage.
Big Joe’s Thoughts:The Vikings are coming off two difficult losses in a row losing in overtime to UIC and then fading in the final minutes against Green Bay. Tough losses like that have to take a toll on a team that is already beat down. Not playing at the Convocation Center might be the best thing the Vikings have going for them.
Big Joe’s Odds:50-1
Detroit Titans
Last 5 Games:4-1
Strengths:Detroit has the fourth best defense in the Horizon League, giving up just over 64 points a game and holding opponents to a league low 40.9% from the field. The Titans also do a good job on the glass with the league’s second best rebounding margin. Second-teamer Brandon Cotton has been hot, averaging nearly 21 points a game over the Titans last five contests. Detroit is also playing their best basketball of the season coming into to Tuesday.
Weaknesses:The Titans can’t win away from Calihan Hall. Detroit’s only road win was at Youngstown State. The Titans also let opponents shoot a league high 38.5% from three-point territory. The Titans also have the worst turnover margin in the Horizon League.
Big Joe’s Thoughts:It should be no surprise that head coach Perry Watson has the Titans playing their best basketball of the season come March. Brandon Cotton has been hot and he has the ability to carry a team, but the Titans are a much different ball club away from Calihan Hall.
Big Joe’s Odds:10-1
Loyola Ramblers
Last 5 Games:4-1
Strengths:First-teamer Blake Schilb has been on fire averaging almost 27 points a game over his last three contests while hitting over 40% of his three-point attempts. The Ramblers are also the league’s top free-throw shooting club. Behind all-defensive player Majak Kou the Ramblers lead the league in blocks and rate second in steals. The Ramblers are also third in the league in turnover margin.
Weaknesses:The Ramblers give up over 70 points a game and let opponents shoot better than 36% from beyond the three-point arc. The Ramblers also struggle a bit on the glass ranking seventh in the league in rebounding.
Big Joe’s Thoughts:The Ramblers come in to the tournament having won three-straight contests and four of five. Loyola has also won two of their last three road games. If the Ramblers can get by first round opponent Youngstown they may be a force in Milwaukee. In close game their ability to connect at the free-throw line could be the difference.
Big Joe’s Odds:10-1
UIC Flames
Last 5 Games:3-2
Strengths:The Flames lead the league in assists and do a decent job on the glass. UIC enters the tournament having won two straight games. The Flames rate in the middle of pack in most categories in the league and have been playing better basketball of late. UIC has notched four consecutive conference road wins coming into the tournament. Freshman guard Josh Mayo has been playing like anything but over his last five games, averaging over 16 points per contest.
Weaknesses: Flames don’t shoot free-throws or three-pointers particularly well and have the unpleasant ability to mail it in at times.
Big Joe’s Thoughts:UIC has gotten immensely tougher as the season has progressed. Their last three wins have all gone to overtime and they’ve proven themselves on the road. In the second half of the conference season the Flames went an impressive 6-2.
Big Joe’s Odds:10-1
Green Bay Phoenix
Last 5 Games:3-2
Strengths:The Phoenix are a very good free-throw shooting team and hit three-pointers at better than 38%. They do a good job of holding opponents shooting down, rating third in the league in field goal percentage defense and first in three-point defense.
Weaknesses:If it’s not a three-pointer the Phoenix seem to struggle to hit, shooting just over 43% from the floor. The Phoenix are seventh in the league in rebounding margin and turnover margin.
Big Joe’s Thoughts:The Phoenix have just two road wins all season and last won on the road January 26. Freshman Ryan Tillema is coming off a career-high 23 points in a season ending victory over Cleveland State. Despite the win over CSU the Phoenix seem to be fading down the stretch. They blew their bracket buster game in mind boggling fashion and won a battle of who could give it away first in their win over Cleveland State.
Big Joe’s Odds:12-1
Milwaukee Panthers
Last 5 Games:3-2
Strengths:The Panthers boast the league’s top scoring offense and the third best defense. UWM is tops in scoring margin and rebounding margin. The Panthers are only behind Butler in turnover margin and they boast three all-conference players in Joah Tucker, Boo Davis and Adrian Tigert. Oh, and the tournament is at their arena after they get better than a week’s rest two play two games rather than four. They are 11-2 at home this season with just one conference loss at the Cell.
Weaknesses:The Panthers don’t shoot free-throws well. They are eighth in the league from the stripe. The Panthers are also playing their worst basketball of the season right now, posting just a 3-4 mark in the month of February.
Big Joe’s Thoughts:An injury to second-teamer and all-defensive player Adrian Tigert has hurt the Panthers. His absence kills the Panthers because he was a great defender, excellent rebounder and underrated passer who made everything click for the Panthers. If Tigert is limited the Panthers are vulnerable even with everything else in their favor.
Big Joe’s Odds:Even
Wright State Raiders
Last 5 Games:2-3
Strengths:The Raiders have the league’s second best defense, giving up just over 63 points a game. WSU is also a strong free-throw shooting club, hitting 70% from the charity stripe. The Raiders also do a good job of getting decent looks at the basket and hit better than 45% from the field. The Raiders are the second best rebounding club in the conference.
Weaknesses:The Raiders can’t hit the broad side of a barn from beyond the three-point arc shooting a league worst 29% from three. The Raiders are also last in the league in blocked shots and steals which doesn’t help their eight place turnover margin.
Big Joe’s Thoughts:The Raiders have to be reeling after dropping two straight road games. WSU had third place and a bye in the tournament within their grasp then laid two eggs on the road to close out the season. The Raiders haven’t won a road game since January 12 and have lost six consecutive away from the Nutter Center.
Big Joe’s Odds:30-1
Youngstown State Penguins
Last 5 Games:0-5
Strengths:The Penguins have the most dangerous scorer in the league in Quin Humphrey. When he is on the Penguins are capable of knocking off anyone.
Weaknesses:The Penguins don’t appear to the naked eye to play defense. They give up a league high 74 points a game, let opponents shoot nearly 47% from the floor and sit and watch and opponents hit three-pointers at a 38% clip, all while getting out-rebounded worse than any team in the league except Butler. That and the Penguins have lost eight consecutive games coming into the tournament.
Big Joe’s Thoughts:If YSU had to choose a first round opponent they would’ve chosen Loyola. The Penguins in their last two games have nearly erased a 21-point deficit at butler and then did erase a 24-point deficit to force overtime against Loyola. If Humphrey gets hot, the Penguins might pull an upset or two.
Big Joe’s Odds:60-1
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