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Big Joe's Commentary

2/7/06
by Joe Dlugosz

I wish I could paint a prettier picture for the Ramblers, but a 5-6 record and fourth place in the Horizon League might be about as good as it gets this season. It was real nice to have six home games in a row over the last month or so, but some difficult home losses have really put the Ramblers in a bind heading into the last five games of the conference season.

As of Tuesday February 7, Horizon League road teams have won a total of 17 games against 34 losses, a dismal .333 winning percentage. The Ramblers opponent’s over the next four road games have posted an equally impressive 14-7 home mark. Included in that group is a Butler squad that is undefeated at Hinkle Fieldhouse and a Green Bay team that has lost just one game at the Resch Center.

With five games left in the conference season not one team has a more unfavorable schedule than the Ramblers. Loyola has just one home game left, against second place Wright State, and four road games left. That’s the fewest home games of all teams in the conference and the most road games.

Going by the percentages that have already been established through 102 conference games things don’t look good. Judging by what has happened to this point in the season each home team should win twice for every loss and just the opposite should happen to road teams, two losses for every win. Also, taking into consideration each team’s current home and road winning percentage here’s how I calculate the standings breaking down.

1. Milwaukee 11-5
2. Butler 10-6
3. Wright State 9-7
4. Green Bay 8-8
5. UIC 7-9
6. Detroit 7-9
7. YSU 7-9
8. Loyola 7-9
9. Cleveland State 6-10

In this scenario Loyola would fall to 8th place because of having a 2-4 record against the other three teams involved in the four-way tie. UIC would get 5th place because of having a 4-2 mark against the other three teams.

Obviously 8th place is not where the Ramblers or their fans thought that they would finish this season. However, just going by the percentages this is a very likely scenario. Even worse, an 8th place finish in this scenario would put the Ramblers on the road against the UIC Flames in the first round of the Horizon League tournament.

The odds are certainly stacked against the Ramblers as they head into the home stretch of the conference season. It’s these kinds of stretches that winning teams always look back on and claim was the turning point of the season. Winning on the road is hard. The Horizon League likes to pride itself on claiming that winning on the road in the Horizon League is even more difficult than most. So now is the time where the Ramblers character will be tested.

The Ramblers can ill afford another three-game road skid like they had in early January. Did they learn from those losses just how difficult life is on the road? Have they realized that nothing can be taken for granted in the Horizon League where one bad call is usually followed by a terrible call?

These next three games are the Ramblers season, everything that has or hasn’t been accomplished to this point doesn’t matter because these three games will determine whether the Ramblers have what it takes to win in the Horizon League tournament. Come February 28, the Ramblers will be playing up to four games away from the Gentile Center, lose once and there is no next game until November and for some there will be no next game ever.

It’s time to see what the Ramblers are made of.

Email: Click here to tell Joe he'll be in Milwaukee March 7.